Musharraf and His Cohorts Take a Beating in Pakistani Elections

By M.M. Ali

In a show of strength against Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, opposition leaders (l-r) former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif; Asif Ali Zardari, widower of Benazir Bhutto and head of her Pakistan People’s Party; and Asfandyar Wali Khan of the Pashtun secular Awami National Party join hands at a luncheon hosted by Zardari during a Feb. 27 meeting in Islamabad of the parties’ new MPs (AFP photo/Aamir Qureshi).

BENAZIR BHUTTO’S ASSASSINATION cast a long shadow on Pakistan’s Feb. 18 elections, with her murder leaving several parties and players facing an uncertain present, let alone future. Her Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) lost its only legitimate leader of national stature. Bhutto’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari, who was never viewed as her political successor, now claims to be the leader of the PPP. He does not enjoy the confidence of Pakistanis, however, as his reputation is tainted with tales of corruption during Bhutto’s two terms as prime minister in the 1990s, when her husband acquired the nickname “Mr. 10 Percent.”

Not only did the rival Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, suddenly find itself virtually alone in the field going into the elections, but right-wing religious groups also showed signs of disarray. Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamiat-e-Ulemae Islam, which had joined to form the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), are now split, with their respective leaders, Kazi Hussain Ahmed and Maulana Fazlur Rehman, apparently having decided to go it alone.

President Pervez Musharraf, who had agreed to back Benazir Bhutto, now faces a strongly divided political field. His Pakistan Muslim League (Q) has been unable to develop any national leadership. The best it could come up with are Chaudhri Pervaiz Elahi and Chaudhri Shujaat Hussain, who enjoy only local recognition in the Punjab province of Gujrat.

The political scene in Sindh province similarly is one of confusion. The direction of politics in its urban centers like Hyderabad, Sukkur and, particularly, Karachi is controlled by the Muttahida Qaumi Mahaz (MQM) party led by Altaf Hussain, who remains in exile in London and is charged with kidnappings and other crimes. Nevertheless, he has remarkable influence over the neo-Sindhis, the third-generation of Urdu-speaking Pakistanis who migrated from India following the 1947 partition of the country. A supporter of President Musharraf, Altaf had helped him form a centrist coalition government and, should circumstances warrant, may well support whoever forms the government in Sindh as well as in Islamabad.

Teams from the United States and the European Union monitored the elections, which the U.S. State Department had insisted be “free and fair”—to which Musharraf added the criterion “peaceful.” Prior to the vote, both the PPP and PML (N) expressed fears that the elections would be rigged. Their fairness was questioned because the caretaker government appointed by Musharraf consists mostly of his cronies. Interim Prime Minister Muhammadmian Soomro is the former chairman of National Senate, and most of his ministers have been supporters of Musharraf. Even the Election Commission was composed of Musharraf’s appointees.

An additional demand made by Nawaz Sharif was for reinstatement of the dismissed Supreme Court judges, including Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhri, whom Musharraf removed from office on March 9, 2007. Other parties have called for judicial freedom but did not demand reappointment of the suspended judges.

As it turned out, Musharraf’s Pakistan Muslim League (Q) took a serious beating in the elections, losing even in Punjab province, where it was expected to do well. Several of his political cohorts, including party chief Chaudhri Shujaat Husain, former Assembly Speaker Amir Husain, former Information Minister Shaikh Rasheed Ahmed, and former ministers Omar Ayub Khan, Sardar Mushtaq Hussain and Zubaida Jalal, lost their seats.

No party won a clear majority in the National Assembly (NA). Opposition groups led by the PPP and PML (N), and perhaps joined by Altaf Husain’s MQM party, will look to form a coalition government.

Musharraf’s party claimed to have received 7.6 million popular votes to the PPP’s 10.3 million and PML (N)’s 6.7 million. In the 342-seat house, 88 have gone to PPP, 65 to PML (N) and 25 to independents. Should the latter ally themselves with the opposition PPP and PML (N), the coalition government that emerges will have 197 seats against 145 for Musharraf’s PML (Q).

Because no single party won a clear majority, the elections are not expected to bring political stability to Pakistan. Indeed, if any ensuing chaos gets out of hand, there remain strong chances of a military takeover. The new army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, issued discreet statements to let the politicians know that he is very much looking over their shoulders. On Feb. 12 he ordered 152 officers to leave their civilian positions and resume their regular military duties. However—perhaps because the government had issued orders to shoot on sight anyone found disrupting the elections—there were very few incidents of violence during the voting. This writer traveled around Karachi on election day and found the place totally deserted, with police on patrol and the army standing by.

While Washington has expressed its support of the election results, the State Department wants the new government to work with Musharraf as the civilian president. Many Pakistanis do not appreciate American and British intervention at this stage, however, and would prefer that Pakistan be left alone to resolve its political problems.

Prof. M.M. Ali, a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area, filed this report from Pakistan.